An examination of the causal relation between unemployment, economic growth and poverty in Nigeria (1980-2020)
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Abstract
The study appraised the response of poverty to unemployment rate and economic growth in Nigeria between 1980 and 2020.It also analyzed the trend and pattern of poverty, unemployment and economic growth, and determined the causality relationship among poverty, unemployment and economic growth in Nigeria. Annual time series secondary data covering the period within 1980 to 2020 were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin (2020) World Development Indicator (WDI) and National Bureau of Statistics. The study made used of Vector Autoregressive estimation techniques (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Pair wise Granger Causality was used to check the direction of causality. The descriptive statistics indicate a good level of consistency in the data series. The econometric analysis shows a bidirectional causal relationship, running poverty to unemployment. while there is an independent causal relationship running from economic growth to poverty. This result does not conform to the a-priori expectation. The result shows that, even if economic growth expands, it does not reduce poverty incidence in the Nigerian. The study discovers that while GDP was growing, poverty situation in Nigeria did not improve, instead, it got worsened. The study concluded that promoting end poverty and unemployment policy and programmes in Nigeria and achieving any sustainable economic growth, there should be targeted interventions of the government to economic growth unemployment and poverty reduction simultaneously and not indirectly depending on the trickle- down effect of economic growth alone
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